[CEAMeS DP06] – „On the (non-)sustainability of China’s development strategies“

CEAMeS Discussion Paper No 6 | 2017
forthcoming in: “Chinese Economy”, vol. 50 (2017)

Helmut Wagner

also published as:
SSRN Paper No. 2946768, 2017

This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the two major Chinese growth strategies since 1978, namely the Deng strategy (named after Deng Xiaoping) between 1978 and 2011 and the Xi strategy (named after Xi Jinping) since 2012/13. After a brief description of both strategies, I analyze in depth whether the respective reforms of the two strategies have caused sustainable or unsustainable growth and economic development. Furthermore, I derive some implications concerning the danger of a Chinese middle-income trap and pro- pose some policy recommendations (also against the background of the Korean experience). I finally develop a growth-theoretic systematization of the arguments elaborated previously.

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