Probabilistic Knowledge Processing
Applications
Social Network Analysis
The analysis of Social Networks widely is based on their respective graphical structures. Centrality measures of actors usually consider their position in a graph. Sometimes graphs are an insufficient medium to represent social structures. The research group proposed a new framework with the purpose to analyze social fabric correctly: information theory. A set of conditionals is used to form the knowledge base about the network’s structure. Once the knowledge base is adapted under maximum entropy or minimum cross-entropy a new analysis tool is available. The construction of knowledge bases and their analyses are realized in the expert system shell SPIRIT.
Assessment of Quotes in Plant Business
Until conclusion of a contract for the purchase of a large-scale plant the potential buyer obtains offers from different suppliers. For the manufacturer the preparation of a tender is connected with substantial costs. But there is no guarantee to win the tender – only ten percent of these offers are successful. The costs of project preparation in plant engineering amounts to five percent of the order value, and thereby in the high millions of euros. So there is a special interest to rate the chances winning the tender. An assessment of quotes can be performed by the expert-system shell SPIRIT in two steps. First a check of the basic conditions occurs in a preselection, before then on the base of an extensive knowledge base chances and risks are forecast for submitting and keeping open a tender respectively. Within the scope of a project with a big German plant engineering the application of such a system was tested. For different projects the analysis by SPIRIT was compared with alternative assessment methods.
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